Source-gated · bubble-risk tracker

Michael Burry's Reported AI Short Positions

A source-gated Santro tracker of publicly disclosed (13F) and reputable-media-reported put-option positions against AI stocks held by Michael Burry's Scion Asset Management — the “Big Short” investor's reported bet that AI valuations have run ahead of fundamentals.

This tracks what was disclosed and when, with one crucial caveat: a 13F reports the notional value of options, not the capital at risk. It is not a prediction and not financial advice.

Hot means attention, not direction.

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Disclosure basis & dates

What this tracker is built on, and when each position was disclosed or reported.

Scion 13F — Q3 2025 (Nvidia & Palantir puts)reported 2025-11-10

2026 expansion reporting (strikes / expiries, ~80% of book)2026

Last reviewed by Santro2026-07-01

Reported AI short (put) positions

Publicly disclosed (13F) and reputable-media-reported positions. Notional values are the reported value of the underlying shares — not the capital at risk. Santro does not estimate current exposure.

Ticker	Company	Position	Reported notional	Reported structure	Confidence	Source	Date disclosed	Notes
PLTR	Palantir Technologies	put options + reported short	~$912M (Q3 2025)	Reported 2026 structure: puts $100 strike (Dec 2026) + $50 strike (Jun 2027), plus reported direct short.	High	The Motley Fool	2025-11-10	~$912.1M notional put position disclosed in Scion's Q3 2025 13F; the larger of the two AI shorts.
NVDA	Nvidia	put options	~$187M (Q3 2025)	Reported 2026 structure: puts on ~1,000,000 shares, $110 strike, expiring 2027.	High	The Motley Fool	2025-11-10	~$186.6M notional put position disclosed in Scion's Q3 2025 13F.

Combined reported notional ≈ $1.1B; reporting indicates these AI puts grew to as much as ~80% of Scion's disclosed book in 2026.

How to read these numbers

Why the headline figures overstate the bet — the part most coverage glosses over.

Notional ≠ capital at risk. A 13F lists the value of the underlying shares the puts could sell — not the premium Scion actually paid. The real money at stake is a fraction of the notional, and the maximum loss on long puts is the premium.

Puts can be hedges, not a crash call. A put position can offset other longs or cap downside. A disclosed put doesn't, by itself, mean a manager expects a stock to collapse — or that they're bad long-term businesses.

It's a snapshot. A 13F is filed weeks after quarter-end and only shows that moment. The position may already have been sold, rolled, or expired — the next filing can look completely different.

Attention, not timing. A high-profile bear's disclosed position draws attention to valuation risk; it is not a signal of when anything happens. Hot means attention, not direction.

Why this sits in bubble-risk tracking

Burry's reported AI puts are a public, named expression of the same question Santro's AI bubble-risk index tries to frame: have expectations run ahead of fundamentals? His comparison to the dot-com bubble is a familiar warning, not a forecast. We track it next to the bull side of the AI-infrastructure trade — the Aschenbrenner public AI infrastructure basket — so you can see both sides of the same debate, source-gated and without hype.

Tracker read

Reported AI shorts

2 names — Nvidia & Palantir (puts)

Largest reported notional

PLTR — ~$912M notional (Q3 2025)

Most recent disclosure

Scion Q3 2025 13F — 2025-11-10

The thesis

AI valuations running ahead of fundamentals — a dot-com-style warning.

The catch

Notional ≠ capital at risk; puts may be hedges; snapshot may be stale.

Source methodology

Santro prioritizes official filings first (13F on SEC EDGAR), then reputable financial media (e.g. The Motley Fool, Yahoo Finance). Unsourced social-media posts are not treated as positions. We record what was disclosed and when, and we surface the notional-vs-capital caveat rather than repeating headline dollar figures as if they were the bet size. If a position is unclear, it is marked accordingly or left out. Accuracy beats drama.

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Disclaimer

This page is based on public disclosures (13F), reputable reporting, and Santro-reviewed source notes. Reported positions may be delayed, incomplete, hedged, rolled or already closed, and 13F figures are notional, not capital at risk. Nothing here is a prediction about any stock, a claim about Michael Burry's current views, or a recommendation. Not financial advice.